
ROARK Strategic Intelligence System
Cipriani stands at 304 firm contracts out of 398 total units (76.4% firm sold), with 94 not-yet-firm units and $463.6M in cumulative risk. The pace of 5 contracts/month (2026) versus 284 in 2022 represents a 97.6% velocity collapse that demands structural intervention, not incremental adjustment.
The competitive landscape shifted materially this week. Mercedes-Benz Places — 791 units at lower PSF ($1,800–$3,000 vs. Cipriani $1,600–$4,491) targeting the same buyer pool — faces court-ordered foreclosure. Construction is dark. This is a direct conversion opportunity: every MB Places buyer now carries counterparty risk and should receive targeted Cipriani outreach within 72 hours.
Three structural vulnerabilities demand board-level attention: (1) 35 ghost reservations with no buyer on file (~$146M phantom pipeline); (2) $42.2M in overdue deposits across 186 milestones — creating financing and legal exposure at TCO; (3) 2 zombie contracts aged 1,248 and 624 days with no documented resolution path.
The digital marketing program is structurally broken. StrategyMedia reports 170 leads/month but delivers 5 contracts/month — a 97% evaporation rate. Facebook/Instagram: 2 contracts ALL-TIME. Website mobile PageSpeed 27/100, LCP 41.7s — invisible to international mobile buyers. Events produce 3–50× ROI vs. digital. São Paulo (87 registrants) outperformed all social combined (25 leads). Budget must follow the data.
Time pressure: T3 (40 unfirm units / $290M) closes January 2028 — 21 months away. At 5 contracts/month, Cipriani generates ~105 new contracts by then. T3 alone requires all 40 unfirm units to go firm. Velocity must triple, or T3 closings become a distressed event.
| Floor Band | Units | PSF Range | Avg PSF | Median Price | vs. Launch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low (Fl 8–30) | 141 | $823–$1,991 | $1,340 | $2.04M | +23% |
| Mid (Fl 31–50) | 116 | $978–$2,121 | $1,458 | $2.35M | +34% |
| High (Fl 51–65) | 82 | $1,100–$2,199 | $1,682 | $3.33M | +55% |
| Upper (Fl 66–78) | 52 | $1,340–$2,374 | $2,031 | $4.75M | +87% |
| Penthouse (Fl 79–81) | 4 | $3,247–$5,510 | $4,063 | $33.85M | +274% |
| UNIT TYPE | PRICE | HOA | TAX | INSURANCE | TOTAL/MO | ANNUAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Bed (1,500 sf) | $2.2M | $1,875 | $3,500 | $350 | $5,725 | $68,700 |
| 3-Bed (2,200 sf) | $2.8M | $2,750 | $4,500 | $500 | $7,750 | $93,000 |
| 4-Bed / PH (4,000+ sf) | $6.7M+ | $5,000+ | $10,500+ | $800+ | $16,300+ | $195,600+ |
| UNIT | DOWN PAYMENT | MONTHLY P&I | + CARRY COSTS | TOTAL/MO |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Bed ($2.2M) | $440K | $11,700 | $5,725 | $17,425 |
| 3-Bed ($2.8M) | $560K | $14,900 | $7,750 | $22,650 |
| 4-Bed ($6.7M) | $1.34M | $35,600 | $16,300 | $51,900 |
| AGING | MILESTONES | AMOUNT | SEVERITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0–30 days | 4 | $813,498 | LOW |
| 31–90 days | 32 | $6,553,680 | MEDIUM |
| 91–180 days | 137 | $32,802,029 | HIGH |
| 181–365 days | 8 | $1,840,061 | HIGH |
| 365+ days | 477 | $118,507,824 | CRITICAL |
| Source | Deals | % | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broker | 316 | 56.6% | $784.0M |
| Unknown | 90 | 16.1% | $230.2M |
| Referral | 38 | 6.8% | $95.3M |
| Other | 29 | 5.2% | $62.8M |
| Web Search | 20 | 3.6% | $54.5M |
| In-House Agent Outreach | 18 | 3.2% | $38.5M |
| Events (LatAm roadshows) | 21 | 3.8% | $48.9M |
| Drive-by | 9 | 1.6% | $25.5M |
| Eblast | 5 | 0.9% | $11.4M |
| Social Media | 2 | 0.4% | $6.2M |
| Channel | Output | Verdict | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Facebook / Instagram | 2 ALL-TIME | ELIMINATE | Redirect 100% of Meta budget to events + LinkedIn |
| Google Ads | 11 ALL-TIME | CUT 70% | Retain branded keyword defense only |
| +67% MoM | SCALE 3x | Target Miami-bound finance/tech C-suite; family offices | |
| Events (São Paulo model) | 87 registrants | 3-50x ROI | Book: CDMX, Buenos Aires, Bogotá, Monterrey, NYC |
| Website Mobile | LCP 41.7s | EMERGENCY | WebP, CDN, lazy load — target <2.5s within 30 days |
| Firm | City | Phone | Key Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Toribio Achával | +54 11 4819-4000 | info@toribioachaval.com | Facundo de Achával Vice President |
|
| Tizado Propiedades | +54 9 11 3028-1000 | — | — |
| Firm | City | Phone | Key Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aspen Snowmass Sotheby's | +1 970-925-6060 | info@aspensnowmasssir.com | David E. Harris Managing Broker |
|
| CB Mason Morse | +1 970-925-7000 | info@masonmorse.com | Will Herndon CEO |
| Firm | City | Phone | Key Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bossa Nova Sotheby's | +55 11 3061-0000 | contato@bnsir.com.br | Marcello Gandini Romero CEO |
|
| Apsa Imobiliária | +55 21 3233-3000 | centro@apsa.com.br | Leonardo Schneider Superintending Director... |
|
| Lopes Imóveis (LPS Luxury Pr... | +55 11 3067-0520 | ouvidoria@lopes.com.br | Mirella Parpinelle Correa Founder & CEO, LPS Luxu... |
| Firm | City | Phone | Key Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Agency | +1 424-230-3700 | info@theagencyre.com | Mauricio Umansky Founder & CEO |
|
| Compass Beverly Hills | +1 310-230-5478 | info@compass.com | Alek Carrera Director, Founding Memb... |
| Firm | City | Phone | Key Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CB Colombia (Antares Inmobil... | +57 1 236-3099 | adriana.diaz@cbcolombia.com.co | — | |
| La Galería Inmobiliaria | +57 313-209-2861 | — | Luisa Fernanda Armenta Echeverry Commercial Director (Di... |
| Firm | City | Phone | Key Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardis Sotheby's | +41 22 888 18 18 | geneve@cardis.ch | Valentine Cardis CEO |
|
| Naef Prestige Knight Frank | +41 22 839 38 88 | geneve@npkf.ch | Jacques Emery Sales Director, Naef Pr... |
|
| Engel & Völkers Geneva | +41 22 800 00 88 | geneva@engelvoelkers.com | Costas Dambassinas Licence Partner & Manag... |
| Firm | City | Phone | Key Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knight Frank Hong Kong | +852 2846 7418 | IRS@hk.knightfrank.com | Daniel Anderson Head of International R... |
|
| List Sotheby's Hong Kong | +852 6063 9364 | info@listsothebysrealtyhk.com | Franky Cho Chief Operating Officer |
|
| Christie's International Rea... | +852 6203 6369 | anne.yeung@cirehk.com | Samson Law Managing Director |
|
| Savills Hong Kong | +852 2842 4400 | onlinemarketing_hk@savills.com.hk | Mark Elliott Senior Director, Intern... |
| Firm | City | Phone | Key Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knight Frank Mayfair | +44 20 3925 1642 | mayfair@knightfrank.com | Alastair Nicholson Partner & Head of Mayfa... |
|
| Savills Mayfair | +44 20 7578 5100 | info@savills.co.uk | Nick Verdi Head of Sales, Mayfair |
|
| UK Sotheby's | +44 20 4586 7135 | customercare@sothebysrealty.co.uk | Alex Isidro Managing Director |
|
| Beauchamp Estates | +44 20 7499 7722 | londoninformation@beauchampestates.com | Jeremy Gee Managing Director |
|
| Wetherell | +44 20 7493 6935 | info@wetherell.co.uk | Peter Wetherell Founder & Chairman |
| Firm | City | Phone | Key Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico Sotheby's | +52 55 5929 5252 | info@mexicosir.com | Javier Romero Managing Director |
|
| Christie's International Rea... | +52 984 217 1713 | jason@christiesrealestatemexico.com | Jason Waller CEO |
|
| CB Mexico | +52 55 4162 1060 | info@coldwellbanker.com.mx | — |
| Firm | City | Phone | Key Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Taylor Monaco | +377 93 50 30 70 | monaco@john-taylor.com | Tiago Viana Machado Managing Partner |
|
| Knight Frank Monaco (Balkin ... | +377 93 50 3000 | info@balkinestates.com | Edward de Mallet Morgan Partner, Head of Monaco... |
| Firm | City | Phone | Key Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sotheby's Greenwich | +1 203-869-4343 | — | Pamela S. Pagnani Senior Vice President &... |
|
| Brown Harris Stevens NYC | +1 212-508-7200 | referrals@bhsusa.com | Bess Freedman CEO |
|
| Houlihan Lawrence | +1 914-220-7000 | info@houlihanlawrence.com | Liz Nunan President & CEO |
| Firm | City | Phone | Key Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knight Frank Singapore | +65 6848 5678 | marketing.comm@sg.knightfrank.com | Nicholas Keong Senior Director & Head ... |
|
| List Sotheby's Singapore | +65 6256 0606 | info@listsothebysrealty.sg | Hisashi Kitami CEO & Owner, List Group... |
|
| Savills Singapore | +65 6836 6888 | info@savills.com.sg | Marcus Loo Chief Executive Officer |
| Firm | City | Phone | Key Contact | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knight Frank Dubai | +971 50 240 1925 | KnightFrankUAE@me.KnightFrank.com | Petri Mannila Head of Prime Residenti... |
|
| Christie's International Rea... | +971 4 425 2780 | info@christiesrealestatedubai.com | Hasnain Chaudhry Executive Director, Cor... |
|
| Allsopp & Allsopp | +971 4 429 4444 | info@allsoppandallsopp.com | Carl Allsopp CEO |
|
| CB UAE | +971 4 439 1200 | info@coldwellbanker.ae | Ayman Youssef Managing Director |
|
| Engel & Völkers Dubai | +971 4 422 3500 | dubai@engelvoelkers.com | Roman Klott Chief Operating Officer... |
| PRIORITY | TASK | DATE | TRANCHE |
|---|---|---|---|
| URGENT | FLIBS 2026 reception: invite 30+ named yacht brokers, build pipeline | Oct 29, 2026 | T3 |
| HIGH | Broker pipeline review with Fortuna (weekly) | Apr 14, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Outside broker outreach -- top international desks (weekly) | Apr 15, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Co-broke commission spiff calibration | Apr 16, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Confirm FLIBS 2026 sponsorship + reception venue | May 4, 2026 | T3 |
| HIGH | Build target list: 25 named JPM Private Bank advisors covering FL/NY/SF/LA | May 5, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Submit Cipriani for Tiger 21 FL chapter member presentation slot | May 8, 2026 | T3 |
| HIGH | Build target list of top 30 yacht brokers serving Miami/Caribbean | May 13, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Build database of 30 single-family offices in NYC/Greenwich/Palm Beach with $100M+ AUM | May 20, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Schedule 5 advisor lunches in Miami: JPM PB, MS PWM, Goldman PWM, UBS, BNY Mellon | May 26, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Engage Bilzin Sumberg (Miami) as primary attorney partner for Cipriani referrals | May 27, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Sponsor Bilzin Sumberg's family office breakfast | Jun 3, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | CLE sponsorship at NY State Bar Trusts & Estates section meeting | Jun 4, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Direct outreach to top 30 yacht brokers with co-broke incentive structure | Jun 8, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Host private "Cipriani Walkthrough" event for top 15 advisors at sales gallery | Jul 15, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Attend Opal Family Office Forum (Newport, RI) | Jul 20, 2026 | T3 |
| HIGH | Host Cipriani-branded MFO advisor cocktail reception in Miami | Sep 29, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Partner with Bilzin Sumberg or Greenberg Traurig family office practice for Q4 dinner | Oct 8, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Pre-Art Basel advisor dinner at Cipriani sales gallery | Nov 12, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Cipriani booth at Miami International Boat Show (Feb 2027) | Jan 12, 2027 | T1 |
| NORMAL | Aviation broker outreach: top 10 private jet sales firms | Jun 10, 2026 | T3 |
| NORMAL | Send Q2 update letter to 50 named advisors in NYC, Chicago, LA, SF, Boston | Jun 15, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Direct mail: Cipriani delivery timeline + tax angle to 30 SFO contacts | Jun 22, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | NetJets / Wheels Up partnership inquiry: in-cabin Cipriani magazine placement | Jun 25, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Identify 10 named Bessemer Trust advisors and book 3 introductory calls | Aug 4, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Sponsor Vista Global member event in Miami | Aug 12, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Burgess yacht brokerage partnership: shared Cipriani showcase | Aug 19, 2026 | T3 |
| NORMAL | R360 quarterly meeting sponsorship | Sep 9, 2026 | T3 |
| NORMAL | Q3 advisor outreach push: 25 named contacts, building delivery progress angle | Sep 15, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Family Office Exchange annual conference attendance | Oct 14, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Year-end advisor gift: Cipriani-branded coffee table book to top 50 | Dec 10, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Year-end SFO holiday outreach: personalized gift + delivery progress card | Dec 15, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Palm Beach International Boat Show 2027 sponsorship planning | Dec 15, 2026 | T3 |
| PRIORITY | TASK | DATE | TRANCHE |
|---|---|---|---|
| URGENT | Respond to every Bilzin Sumberg referral within 24 hours (recurring) | May 27, 2026 | -- |
| URGENT | Host "Cipriani Owner Cocktail" at sales gallery for top 30 firm buyers | Sep 26, 2026 | -- |
| URGENT | Pre-TCO buyer event for firm-sold owners: meet your neighbors, tour your unit | Jan 15, 2027 | T1 |
| HIGH | Mast leadership sync -- strategic recap (monthly) | Apr 29, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Build target list of 20 top NY/CA/IL HNW estate planning attorneys | May 6, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Curate Cipriani investor deck for HNW wealth advisors | May 12, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Translate Cipriani sales materials into Portuguese, Spanish, Arabic | May 13, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Position paper: "Cipriani as a Florida tax-residency anchor" | May 19, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Letter to all 304 firm-sold buyers introducing referral program | Jun 1, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Quarterly outreach to top 50 firm-sold buyers (most influential) | Sep 8, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Host "Cipriani for High-Net-Worth Relocators" CLE event in NYC | Sep 22, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Q4 outreach to 20 attorneys with year-end tax planning angle | Nov 18, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Deposit schedule health check (weekly) | Apr 9, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Cohort pipeline review -- LatAm + Middle East + North America | May 8, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Set up referral tracking in Spark CRM (custom field per buyer) | May 25, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Quarterly legal newsletter: Cipriani delivery progress + FL homestead tax briefing | Aug 5, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Track conversion: referrals to introductions to contracts (monthly) | Aug 31, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Highlight top 5 referrer-buyers in quarterly Mast report | Sep 30, 2026 | -- |
| PRIORITY | TASK | DATE | TRANCHE |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | Sponsor Brazilian-American Chamber of Miami quarterly mixer | May 15, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Build relationship with Brazilian-American Chamber top 10 HNW members | May 20, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Brazil broker tour: São Paulo + Rio (Fortuna agent travel) | Jun 9, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Cipriani-branded reception at Wharton Latino Alumni event in Mexico City | Jun 12, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Mexico City + Bogotá broker tour | Jun 16, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Mexico-US Chamber annual gala sponsorship | Sep 18, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Direct outreach to top 10 immigration lawyers serving HNW LatAm clients | Jun 17, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Colombian-American Chamber of Commerce Miami partnership | Jun 23, 2026 | -- |
| PRIORITY | TASK | DATE | TRANCHE |
|---|---|---|---|
| URGENT | Get Mast Capital approval for referral budget ($1M+ committed) | May 15, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Design referral incentive structure with Mast | May 4, 2026 | -- |
| HIGH | Build referral compensation structure for advisors | Aug 18, 2026 | -- |
| PRIORITY | TASK | DATE | TRANCHE |
|---|---|---|---|
| HIGH | Dubai HNW family office visit (Fortuna leadership) | Jul 8, 2026 | -- |
| NORMAL | Lebanese American Chamber of Commerce sponsorship | Sep 1, 2026 | -- |
| NAME | BUILDING | DETAIL | PRIORITY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi ✓ | Porsche Unit 4705 | ALDOLE LLC — ALREADY AT CIPRIANI (4 units, Canaletto Collection). THE PLAYBOOK. | PROOF |
| Carlos Peralta Quintero | Porsche Unit 1101 | CPQ Property Holdings LLC — Mexican billionaire, Chairman Grupo IUSA | CRITICAL |
| Gianluca Vacchi | MB Places | Sued JDS, demanded $35M refund | CRITICAL |
| Ramzi Musallam | Arte Surfside | Veritas Capital CEO — suing for $33M PH defects | CRITICAL |
| Carlos "CarGo" Gonzalez | Porsche Unit 2101 | Former Colorado Rockies MLB star — high-profile sports figure | HIGH |
| Ken Griffin | 1000 Museum | Listed PH at $21M — repositioning | HIGH |
| Terry R. Taylor | Porsche PH-1 | US car dealer mogul — $25M penthouse, subsidence exposure | HIGH |
| Lloyd W. Howell Jr. | Porsche Unit 3303 | Booz Allen Hamilton CFO — $6.8M unit | HIGH |
| Gregg G. Williams | Aston Martin | $21M unit — active lawsuit plaintiff | HIGH |
| Lloyd W. Howell Jr. | Porsche Unit 3303 | Named in distressed buyer research | HIGH |
| Marc Anthony | Aston Martin | Sold at loss ($8.6M vs $11M) — already exiting | MEDIUM |
| Keith Swirsky | Aston Martin | Plaintiff in Coto fraud lawsuit | MEDIUM |
| Michael Shvartsman | Porsche Unit 2701 | Known Miami investor | MEDIUM |
| Gil Dezer (WATCH) | Porsche Unit 4401 | Developer of the building itself — insider signal if he exits | WATCH |
| Tara Karawia ⚠️ | Porsche Unit 2205 | Unit previously federally seized in $1B PDVSA laundering — DO NOT APPROACH | BLACKLIST |